Pierre Prévost was born 3 March 1751 in Geneva and died there 8 April 1839. It seems that he studied under Mallet. In 1780 Prévost was appointed Professor of Physics at the Berlin École militaire. He was a member of the Berlin academy of sciences.

Simon Antoine Jean L'huilier was born in Geneva as well on 24 April 1750 and died also died there 28 March 1840. He wrote several papers jointly with Prévost.

Prévost and L'huilier published in the scholarly journals of the Berlin society. From 1770 to 1786, this journal was officially named Nouveaux mémoires de l'Académie royale des sciences et belles-lettres: avec l'histoire pour la même année. It was conntinued until 1804 under the title Mémoires de l'Académie royale des sciences et belles-lettres depuis l'avénement de Fréderic Guillaume II (or subsequently Fréderic Guillaume III) au trône: avec l'histoire pour la même temps.

Pierre Prévost

Three papers papers by Prévost form a series of which the latter two appear under the same title. These papers are:

"Observations sur les méthodes employées for enseigner la morale," Nouveaux Mémoires de l'Académie Royale des Sciences et Belles-lettres de Berlin, 1780, pp. 414-429. "Sur les principes de la Théorie des gains fortuits," Nouveaux Mémoires de l'Académie Royale des Sciences et Belles-lettres de Berlin, 1780, pp. 430-72 and, a second part, 1781, pp. 463-472.

The first memoir concerns the proper manner to teach morals. It is included here because it is the starting point for the two which follow. Indeed, the last few paragraphs take up a discussion of the Petersburg problem to which Montmort, Nicholas Bernoulli, D'Alembert, Daniel Bernoulli, Buffon and Beguelin all devoted attention. 

According to Prévost, traditionally three methods have been used for moral instruction: principles, sentiment and experience. Prévost is particularly fond of the moral instruction of Cicero. 

Cicero, although an Eclectic philosopher, was heavily influenced by the Stoic school. The founder of the Stoic school, Zeno of Citium (c. 324-262 BC), based all knowledge on sense perception. The so-called Middle Stoa is identified with Panaetius of Rhodes (c. 185 - c. 110 BC) and Poseidonius of Apamaea (c.135 - 51 BC). Cicero used works written by the former and heard instruction by the latter in 98 BC. Finally, we mention that Seneca the Younger (c. 4 BC - 64 AD), Epictetus (55 - 135 AD) and Marcus Aurelius (121 - 180 AD) were members of the Later Stoa. From this period alone do writings other than fragments survive. The Stoic Maxim is "Life according to nature." Its Cardinal Virtues are Moral Insight, Courage, Self-control or Temperance, and Justice. See, in particular, Cicero's De Officiis. 

In the second of these three papers, Prévost first makes an examination of the foundations of probability theory in order to resolve the difficulties he sees with the theory. To this end, he identifies three hypotheses as foundation of the theory. These are:

1. All outcomes are equiprobable.
2. The value of a sum actually possessed is equal to its expected value 
3. The value of money is exactly proportional to its denomination.

In his second section, Prévost examines the use of these hypotheses by various authors. The third section concerns application of the third hypothesis. The third paper contains the fourth section which is an application of his hypotheses to certain problem. 

Prévost threatens us with a final memoir presenting applications and further difficulties of another kind. This paper does not seem to have been written. If it had, its content would appear to be a discussion of experimental results devoted to the questions of D'Alembert.

Prévost and L'huilier

With L'huilier, Prévost wrote the following:

• "Sur les Probabilités," Mémoires de l'Académie des sciences et belles-lettres...Berlin, 1796, pp. 117-142.
  
  This paper concerns the urn problem: Given that p white and q black balls have been drawn from an urn without replacement, to find the probability that r white and s black balls will be drawn. This is the first discussion of an urn problem without replacement, a topic also considered by Bishop Terrot in the memoir ``Summation of a Compound Series, and its Application to a Problem in Probabilities," published in Transactions of the Royal Society of Edinburgh, Vol. XX (1853), pp. 541-545. 
  
  
• "Sur l'art d'estimer la probabilité des causes par les effets," Mémoires de l'Académie des sciences et belles-lettres...Berlin, 1796, pp. 3-24. This and the following memoir are less mathematical and consequently were published under the Class de Philosophie Speculative. The present memoir has two sections.
  
  The immediate concern is the principle enunciated by Laplace in "Mémoire sur la probabilité des causes par les événemens," Savants étranges 6, 1774, p. 621-656. Based upon internal evidence, the date of composition of the Mémoire of Laplace can be placed between March and July of 1773. It has been translated by Steven Stigler. See "Laplace's 1774 Memoir on Inverse Probability," Statistical Science, Vol. 1, Issue 3 (Aug. 1986) 359-363 and "Memoir on the Probability of the Cause of Events," in the same issue, pp. 364-378.
  
  The second portion applies that principle to some examples.
  
  
• "Remarques sur l'utilité et l'étendue du principe par lequel on estime la probabilité des causes," Mémoires de l'Académie des sciences et belles-lettres...Berlin, 1796, pp. 25-4. A note related to this memoir is in the volume for 1797, p. 152.
  
  This memoir continues the study of the principle considered in the previous paper. Its four sections are devoted to the utility of the principle, the extent of the principle, a comparison of theory with common sense, and lastly a problem regarding the outcome of the cast of several different dice. In the first section, the authors refer to the work of John Haygarth Recherches sur les Moyens to prevent smallpox, a French translation of which was published in 1786.
  
  
• "Mémoire sur l'application du Calcul des probabilités à la valeur du témoignage," Mémoires de l'Académie des sciences et belles-lettres...Berlin, 1797, pp. 120-151. It is likewise printed in the portion on speculative philosophy. Of course, as the title indicates, it concerns the application of probability theory to the value of witnesses. The paper criticizes Jakob Bernoulli's formula for this problem and praises that of Lambert. He considers subsequently John Craig's Theologiae Christianae Principia Mathematica, published in 1699. 

It is appropriate to cite here Matthew Young's "On the force of Testimony in establishing Facts contrary to Analogy," found in Vol. VII of the Transactions fo the Royal Irish Academy (1800) occupying pages 79-118.